Blue Owl Capital Corporation has traded at a steep discount to net asset value through much of 2026. Markets have every right to decide that a BDC’s book value is overstated, that future earnings are headed lower, or that a specific sector exposure warrants a harsher discount. But the available evidence makes it hard to construct that case for OBDC without ignoring some fairly loud signals pointing the other direction.
Three data points stand out.
Credit Metrics Improved While the Stock Fell
OBDC’s fourth-quarter 2025 results showed non-accruals declining from 1.3% to 1.1% at fair value. Net investment income of $0.38 covered the $0.37 dividend. Portfolio company revenue grew 8% year over year and EBITDA expanded 11%. Software borrowers, the sector drawing the harshest market reaction, posted 10% revenue growth and 16% EBITDA growth.
The underlying portfolio was getting healthier during the same period the stock price was falling. That’s a disconnect that requires an explanation beyond “private credit is under pressure.”
Institutional Buyers Paid Par
On February 12, 2026, pension and insurance investors purchased $1.4 billion of Blue Owl BDC investments, including $400 million from OBDC, at 99.8% of par value (https://www.blueowlcapitalcorporation.com/investors/news-events/press-releases/detail/90/blue-owl-capital-corporation-announces-december-31-2025). These buyers performed independent loan-level due diligence and deployed real capital at a price that validates book value.
While institutional buyers were paying 99.8 cents, public equity investors were pricing the entire BDC at 76 cents. Both groups looked at the same portfolio. Both put money behind their assessment.
Moody’s Upgraded, Not Downgraded
A Baa2 rating reflects a judgment about the balance sheet, the asset mix, and the quality of the external manager. Moody’s issued that rating on January 22, 2026, approximately six weeks before the stock reached its widest discount. The rating agency and the equity market looked at the same company during the same window and reached opposite conclusions.
None of these facts demand that OBDC trade at par with NAV. Taken together, they make a 24% to 28% discount difficult to square with the available evidence. The more likely explanation is sector-wide repricing that hasn’t separated higher-quality credit from the rest of the BDC universe.
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